| 06 September 2012
With just 24 games left in the Regular Season, the Diamondbacks sit 6.5 Games Behind in the Wild Card race and 9.5 Games Back in the NL West. One of the biggest factors in the disappointing season has been the team's performance in One Run games. Amazingly, the Diamondbacks are only 11-23 in One Run games, which is the worst record in the NL, even worse than the hapless Cubs and Astros.
Record in One-Run Games
| Team | W | L | Pct |
| ATL | 19 | 11 | .633 |
| SFG | 26 | 17 | .605 |
| WAS | 26 | 18 | .591 |
| CIN | 24 | 19 | .558 |
| LAD | 25 | 22 | .532 |
| PIT | 25 | 23 | .521 |
| COL | 16 | 15 | .516 |
| MIA | 22 | 21 | .512 |
| SDP | 19 | 19 | .500 |
| NYM | 17 | 18 | .486 |
| PHI | 22 | 24 | .478 |
| MIL | 22 | 28 | .440 |
| STL | 16 | 22 | .421 |
| HOU | 14 | 25 | .359 |
| CHC | 12 | 23 | .343 |
| ARI | 11 | 23 | .324 |
The Diamondbacks also have the largest disparity between their overall winning percentage and their one-run game winning percentage.
| Team | Overall Pct | One-Run Pct | Difference |
| ARI | .493 | .324 | .169 |
| STL | .540 | .421 | .119 |
| COL | .415 | .516 | -.101 |
| MIA | .438 | .512 | -.074 |
| ATL | .562 | .633 | -.071 |
| MIL | .493 | .440 | .053 |
| HOU | .307 | .359 | -.052 |
| CIN | .601 | .558 | .043 |
| SFG | .562 | .605 | -.043 |
| SDP | .464 | .500 | -.036 |
| CHC | .375 | .343 | .032 |
| WAS | .618 | .591 | .027 |
| NYM | .474 | .486 | -.011 |
| PIT | .529 | .521 | .009 |
| PHI | .482 | .478 | .003 |
| LAD | .529 | .532 | -.003 |
If the Diamondbacks' were winning One-Run games at the same rate as their overall winning percentage, they would be around 74-64, right in the hunt for a Wild Card spot. The two questions that immediately come to mind are:
1) Why are the Diamondbacks doing so poorly in one run games?, and
2) Is that likely to be a problem again next year?
Why are the Diamondbacks Doing So Poorly in One Run Games?
The biggest factor in these situations has been the offense, and not the pitching staff. The team is batting just .188/.256/.312 (.567 OPS) in "Late and Close" situations, compared to .258/.324/.418 (.724 OPS) overall. The National League as a whole is batting .239/.317/.369 (.685 OPS) in these cases. Only Jason Kubel and Chris Young have hit near or above their normal levels in Late & Close situations, while the rest of the team has been really, really bad.
| Player | Late & Close OPS |
| Jason Kubel | .882 |
| Chris Young | .753 |
| Miguel Montero | .661 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | .524 |
| Willie Bloomquist | .511 |
| Aaron Hill | .509 |
| Justin Upton | .505 |
| Chris Johnson | .436 |
| Gerardo Parra | .414 |
| Ryan Roberts | .410 |
The pitching has been much better in close games, allowing just a .675 OPS in Late & Close situations, compared to .732 overall.
Is This Likely to be a Problem Again Next Year?
Hopefully not. Team performance in these situations is pretty fluky. In 2011, the Diamondbacks had a 28-16 record in One-Run games, and the offense had an excellent .810 OPS in those situations. They probably overachieved in 2011, and have certainly underachieved in 2012, but if they hit close to their normal levels in clutch situations in 2013, that should be good enough for playoff contention.
