Written by Amit Lal
| 15 June 2010
There is plenty of evidence that the bullpen has been the biggest weakness for the Diamondbacks this year. The bullpen has only earned 13 saves in 2010, and has been charged with 12 blown save opportunities. Of course, not all of the blown saves led to a Diamondback loss, and often the team blew two save chances in the same game. So how many games has the bullpen really cost the team? There are several ways to estimate this - let's look at the bullpen performance in a "macro" way first, and then check out the game-by-game results.
The Pythagorean theorem for baseball is a win-loss predictor based on runs scored and runs allowed. The formula* is Win% = RS^2 / (RS^2 + RA^2), where RS is Runs Scored and RA is Runs Allowed. The team has scored 307 Runs and allowed 370 runs, so their predicted winning percentage is .408, which over 64 games would lead to a Win-Loss record of 26-38, which actually is the team's actual record. The Diamondbacks' bullpen has allowed an amazing 138 Earned Runs in 169.1 IP, for an ERA of 7.33. This ERA is more than one and a half run higher than any other NL team. The average NL bullpen has an ERA of 4.17; if we exclude the Diamondbacks from the totals, the NL Bullpen ERA drops all the way to 3.98. So if the Diamondbacks had an "average" NL bullpen, it would have allowed around 75 runs in their 169 IP, instead of their actual total of 138. This would have led to a Runs Allowed total of 306, and led to a predicted record of .500, or a 32-32 record.
Let's look at a game-by-game breakdown of the bullpen's performance, and try to estimate how many games the bullpen has cost the team. Below is the game-by-game summary of how the bullpen has performed in each game. Color Code:
Green = Save;
Red = Bad Blown Save and Loss;
Blue = Bullpen Loss; Pink = Close Deficit turned into Large One
| Gm |
Opp |
|
Score |
Bullpen Comment |
| 1 |
SD |
W |
6-3 |
Howry gives up 2 in the 9th |
| 2 |
SD |
L |
3-6 |
Bullpen allows 3 of 6 runs |
| 3 |
SD |
W |
5-3 |
Bullpen throws 4 scoreless innings |
| 4 |
PIT |
W |
9-1 |
3 more scoreless innings for the pen |
| 5 |
PIT |
L |
3-6 |
Haren allows all of the runs |
| 6 |
PIT |
W |
15-6 |
Howry again allows 2 runs in the 9th |
| 7 |
LAD |
L |
5-9 |
Vasquez allows 3 runs to put game out reach |
| 8 |
LAD |
W |
9-7 |
Boyer/Qualls each blow a Save , but team wins |
| 9 |
LAD |
L |
5-6 |
Heilman/Qualls each blow Save, Boyer takes L |
| 10 |
SD |
L |
3-6 |
Guti. blows Save and gaves up 4 runs in the 9th |
| 11 |
SD |
L |
0-5 |
Norberto allows 3 in 7th to put game out of reach |
| 12 |
SD |
L |
3-5 |
Heilman/Guti. allows 5 runs to blow 2-run lead |
| 13 |
STL |
L |
2-4 |
Boyer and Qualls each allow run in 8th and 9th |
| 14 |
STL |
W |
9-7 |
3 Scoreless innings from the bullpen |
| 15 |
STL |
L |
4-9 |
Qualls and Howry allow 5 runs in the 9th |
| 16 |
PHI |
W |
7-4 |
Bullpen holds on to a 4 run lead |
| 17 |
PHI |
L |
2-3 |
Gutierrez gives up a run in the 9th to lose |
| 18 |
PHI |
W |
8-6 |
3 Scoreless innings from the bullpen |
| 19 |
COL |
W |
5-3 |
Qualls puts the tying runs on, but gets the Save |
| 20 |
COL |
L |
1-12 |
Bullpen only allows 2 runs in 5 IP |
| 21 |
COL |
W |
12-11 |
Rosales gives up 7 ER, but rest of pen is very good |
| 22 |
CHC |
W |
13-5 |
Bullpen only needs to throw 1 IP behind Kenendy |
| 23 |
CHC |
L |
5-11 |
5 runs in 2 IP lets this game get out of hand |
| 24 |
CHC |
L |
5-7 |
Howry/Gutierrez each give up 2 to blow win |
| 25 |
CHC |
L |
5-10 |
Bullpen only allows 2 ER in 4 IP |
| 26 |
HOU |
W |
9-1 |
4 Scoreless IP for the pen |
| 27 |
HOU |
W |
1-0 |
Gutierrez and Qualls preserve Kennedy's 1-0 win |
| 28 |
HOU |
L |
2-4 |
Gutierrez gives up another walk-off HR |
| 29 |
HOU |
W |
6-3 |
Haren with the Complete Game |
| 30 |
MIL |
L |
2-3 |
2 Scoreless IP for the bulpen |
| 31 |
MIL |
L |
3-17 |
Bullpen gives up 10 runs |
| 32 |
MIL |
L |
1-6 |
Vasquez gives up 4 ER, turning 2-1 deficit into 6-1 |
| 33 |
LAD |
L |
3-7 |
Howry gives up 3 in the 9th, from 4-2 to 7-2 |
| 34 |
LAD |
L |
3-13 |
Bullpen gives up 9 runs, turning game into a rout |
| 35 |
LAD |
L |
3-6 |
2.1 scoreless IP for the bullpen |
| 36 |
ATL |
L |
5-6 |
Gutierrez and Qualls each get a blown save |
| 37 |
ATL |
W |
11-1 |
Only 1 IP for the 'pen |
| 38 |
ATL |
L |
1-13 |
6 more ER for the bullpen, but game already over |
| 39 |
FLA |
W |
5-1 |
Again, only 1 IP for the 'pen |
| 40 |
FLA |
L |
0-8 |
Rivera gives up 5 ER, turning 2-0 into 7-0 deficit |
| 41 |
SFG |
W |
13-1 |
Again, only 1 IP for the 'pen |
| 42 |
SFG |
W |
8-7 |
Only 1 ER in 4 IP; Wfor Heilman and S for Qualls |
| 43 |
TOR |
W |
8-6 |
Gutierrez gives up 2 in the 9th, but Qualls gets Sv |
| 44 |
TOR |
W |
8-5 |
Qualls gets his 3rd straight save |
| 45 |
TOR |
L |
4-12 |
Bullpen gives up 4 runs in 5 IP |
| 46 |
COL |
L |
2-3 |
3 Scoreless innings from the bullpen |
| 47 |
COL |
L |
3-7 |
Gutierrez gives up 3 ER to put game out of reach |
| 48 |
COL |
L |
2-8 |
Bullpen only used for 1.2 IP |
| 49 |
SFG |
L |
0-5 |
Qualls gives up 2 ER in pen's only inning |
| 50 |
SFG |
L |
1-12 |
Rivera and Vasquez give up 5 ER in the last 2 inn. |
| 51 |
SFG |
L |
5-6 |
Qualls blows the Save, Rosa takes the walk-off L |
| 52 |
LAD |
L |
4-5 |
Vasquez balks in the winning run |
| 53 |
LAD |
L |
0-1 |
Gutierrez gives up walkoff HR to Kemp |
| 54 |
LAD |
L |
0-1 |
Bullpen has 4 good IP, but Valdez takes L in 10th |
| 55 |
COL |
W |
7-6 |
3 Scoreless IP, and Qualls get the win |
| 56 |
COL |
W |
4-3 |
Bullpen gives up 3 ER in 3 IP, but Qualls gets Save |
| 57 |
COL |
L |
2-3 |
2 Scoreless IP from Valdez |
| 58 |
ATL |
W |
7-4 |
Good outing for the 'pen; Save for Qualls |
| 59 |
ATL |
L |
5-7 |
Vasquez and Gutierrez each allow 1 ER for the loss |
| 60 |
ATL |
W |
2-1 |
Qualls picks up his 12th Save |
| 61 |
ATL |
L |
7-11 |
Qualls gives up 4 ER in the 9th for the loss |
| 62 |
STL |
L |
2-5 |
2 Scoreless IP for the bulpen |
| 63 |
STL |
W |
7-2 |
1 Scoreless IP from Heilman |
| 64 |
STL |
W |
7-5 |
Qualls and Vasquez blow the Save, but team wins |
Obviously, a bullpen cannot be expected to hold onto every lead. But some blown saves are particularly bad. The team has a total of 12 Blown Saves for the season, but the 6 games marked in red are ones that the Diamondbacks had a very high probability of winning, but didn't. In the first red game (Game 9), both
Aaron Heilman and
Chad Qualls blew separate 2-run leads, before
Blaine Boyer took the loss in the 10th. The next day, Game 10,
Juan Gutierrez first allowed the tying run in the 9th, and then later gave up a walk-off HR to
Chase Headley. In Game 12, the bullpen again blew a late 2-run lead to the Padres. In Game 24, the bullpen blew a 2-run lead, and then gave up 2 more for the loss. In Game 36, Qualls again blew the save, and followed that up by also taking the Loss. Finally, in Game 54, the Diamondbacks bullpen allowed 1 run in the 8th and 2 in the 9th to blow the Save, and then
Carlos Rosa took the loss in the 10th.
In addition to these 6 games that the Diamondbacks probably should have won, there are 8 more games in which the team was in a tie situation, but the bullpen blew the game and took the loss. These games are marked in Blue. Some of these were particularly bad, such as Game 15, where the bullpen turned a 4-4 tie in the 9th into a sure loss by allowing 5 runs. Also marked in Blue are a pair of walk-off losses to the Dodgers, including the balk-off loss by
Esmerling Vasquez followed by the walk-off HR allowed by
Juan Gutierrez to
Matt Kemp (Games 52 and 53). Finally, marked in the pink/purple color are 11 more games where the bullpen turned a small deficit into an almost sure loss. Putting all of this together, there are 6 bad blown saves, 8 blown ties, and 11 games that got of hand. Clearly, not all of these should be Diamondback wins, but given the team's offense, I think a safe estimate is that the Diamondbacks could have won 8-10 more games with a league-average bullpen.
Conclusion
With an ERA of 7.33 and 12 blown saves, the Diamondbacks' bullpen has been a nightmare all season. A league-average bullpen would have allowed around 64 fewer runs, which would add 6 more games to the win column. This would have turned the 26-38 record to a respectable 32-32. Looking at the game-by-game breakdown, the bullpen performance appears even worse. There were 6 particularly bad blown saves, and 8 more games where the bullpen turned a tie game into a loss. 11 more times a close game was turned into a blowout. Combining all of this, I estimate the bullpen has already cost the team around 9 wins, so the Diamondbacks could have been 35-29 with an average bullpen. This would have put them right in the middle of the NL West race.
* Analysis has shown that an exponent of 1.83 is more accurate than 2, but for simplicity, we will use two here.
