29 January 2010
The preliminary projections for the Diamondbacks are on the web from Baseball Prospectus
' PECOTA system. PECOTA
has the Diamondbacks
scoring 764 runs while giving up 723, projecting to a 85-77 record, just two games behind the Dodgers.
The big difference is the offense, which is projected to improve by 44 runs from the 2009 total of only 720. Where are the big improvements coming from? PECOTA sees big improvements from Kelly Johnson, Conor Jackson, and Chris Young.
Kelly Johnson (Proj): .278/.362/.460, .822 OPS (2009-.692)
Conor Jackson (Proj): .278/.361/.429, .790 OPS (2009-.516)
Chris Young (Proj): .241/.323/.437, .760 OPS (2009-.711)
Small improvements are projected for Stephen Drew and Adam LaRoche, while Justin Upton, Miguel Montero, and Mark Reynolds see an OPS drop, but are still very productive players. As a team, the Diamondbacks are projected for a .257/.334/.432 line, up by 24 points of OPS from the 2009 line of .253/.324/.418.
On the pitching side, PECOTA projects the Diamondbacks another solid season from Dan Haren (3.41 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 200 IP), but the numbers aren't as good for the #2 and #3 starters. Brandon Webb is projected for only 16 starts at a 3.80 ERA, while Edwin Jackson makes 30 starts, but with only a 4.84 ERA. What saves the pitching staff in PECOTA's projection is #4 Ian Kennedy, who is projected for a 3.70 ERA in 20 starts, and #5 Billy Buckner, who has a 4.73 ERA in 28 starts. Also contributing are Kevin Mulvey and Bryan Augenstein, who combine for a decent 4.61 ERA in spot starts. PECOTA projects the bullpen to be mediocre, as only Chad Qualls and Clay Zavada have ERAs below 4.00. Overall, the team is projected to give up 723 runs, quite a bit fewer than last year's 782.
Edit: The projections from BP have been revised since they were originally posted on 1/28/2010. The text has been revised.