Written by Amit Lal
| 26 January 2010
Many sites are starting to put out player projections for the 2010 season. In this post, we'll compare the projections for Diamondbacks' batters from six sources - Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Zips, Baseball HQ, and the Fans.
Bill James - These projections are from the
Bill James Handbook, from Baseball Info Solutions.
CHONE - Developed by Sean Smith, these are available at
Baseball Projection.com.
Marcel - Named for Marcel the Monkey,
Marcel is the simplest projection system around, mainly based on a weighted average of the three previous seasons.
Zips - Developed by Dan Szymborksi at
Baseball Think Factory.
Baseball HQ - Projections from Ron Shandler in the
Baseball Forecaster and
BaseballHQ.com.
Fans - This is an average of fans' projections at
Fangraphs.com.
Miguel Montero, C
| System |
AB |
R |
H |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
| 2009 |
425 |
61 |
125 |
16 |
59 |
38 |
78 |
1 |
2 |
.294 |
.355 |
.478 |
.832 |
| BJames |
472 |
63 |
130 |
18 |
69 |
47 |
82 |
1 |
1 |
.275 |
.344 |
.458 |
.802 |
| CHONE |
362 |
44 |
100 |
14 |
55 |
32 |
66 |
1 |
1 |
.276 |
.342 |
.456 |
.798 |
| Marcel |
406 |
57 |
112 |
15 |
55 |
40 |
80 |
2 |
2 |
.276 |
.344 |
.456 |
.799 |
| Zips |
346 |
44 |
95 |
12 |
56 |
33 |
61 |
0 |
1 |
.275 |
.342 |
.451 |
.793 |
| HQ |
466 |
62 |
127 |
17 |
61 |
44 |
92 |
1 |
1 |
.273 |
.335 |
.460 |
.796 |
| Fans |
508 |
73 |
144 |
18 |
78 |
50 |
90 |
1 |
0 |
.283 |
.352 |
.458 |
.810 |
All of the projections for Montero are fairly close, and all are slightly below his 2009 stats. Montero's playing time will depend on the status of Chris Snyder. If Snyder isn't traded, he should see some at bats against LHP. But if the D'backs decide to trade Snyder and his $4M salary, Montero should steal more at bats from the backup (John Hester).
Adam LaRoche, 1B
| System |
AB |
R |
H |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
| 2008 |
492 |
66 |
133 |
25 |
85 |
54 |
122 |
1 |
1 |
.270 |
.341 |
.500 |
.841 |
| 2009 |
555 |
78 |
154 |
25 |
83 |
69 |
142 |
2 |
2 |
.277 |
.355 |
.488 |
.843 |
| BJames |
571 |
79 |
155 |
26 |
91 |
66 |
143 |
1 |
1 |
.271 |
.348 |
.485 |
.833 |
| CHONE |
532 |
71 |
138 |
24 |
80 |
54 |
135 |
1 |
1 |
.259 |
.330 |
.459 |
.789 |
| Marcel |
505 |
67 |
136 |
22 |
77 |
58 |
124 |
2 |
2 |
.269 |
.344 |
.473 |
.817 |
| Zips |
513 |
80 |
147 |
26 |
109 |
63 |
130 |
1 |
1 |
.287 |
.363 |
.520 |
.883 |
| HQ |
583 |
88 |
164 |
31 |
109 |
63 |
139 |
1 |
1 |
.282 |
.352 |
.532 |
.884 |
| Fans |
548 |
82 |
148 |
25 |
84 |
63 |
139 |
2 |
1 |
.270 |
.343 |
.481 |
.824 |
The projections for LaRoche are a lot more varied, with the projected OPS varying from .789 to .884. I think the upper projections will prevail, as LaRoche benefits from the friendly batting conditions in Arizona.
Kelly Johnson, 2B
| System |
AB |
R |
H |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
| 2007 |
521 |
91 |
144 |
16 |
68 |
79 |
117 |
9 |
5 |
.276 |
.375 |
.457 |
.831 |
| 2008 |
547 |
86 |
157 |
12 |
69 |
52 |
113 |
11 |
6 |
.287 |
.349 |
.446 |
.795 |
| 2009 |
303 |
47 |
68 |
8 |
29 |
32 |
54 |
7 |
2 |
.224 |
.303 |
.389 |
.692 |
| BJames |
485 |
78 |
133 |
14 |
62 |
58 |
88 |
10 |
5 |
.274 |
.354 |
.445 |
.799 |
| CHONE |
433 |
69 |
118 |
13 |
56 |
49 |
81 |
8 |
4 |
.273 |
.351 |
.443 |
.794 |
| Marcel |
380 |
60 |
101 |
10 |
46 |
44 |
78 |
8 |
4 |
.266 |
.345 |
.432 |
.777 |
| Zips |
434 |
66 |
121 |
14 |
64 |
48 |
84 |
5 |
2 |
.279 |
.352 |
.472 |
.824 |
| HQ |
491 |
88 |
136 |
16 |
72 |
53 |
91 |
12 |
3 |
.277 |
.348 |
.483 |
.832 |
| Fans |
492 |
69 |
134 |
12 |
70 |
55 |
94 |
7 |
2 |
.272 |
.346 |
.423 |
.769 |
Kelly Johnson had a down year in 2009, but all of the projection systems have Johnson returning to form in 2010. Although Chase Field should help Johnson's stats, my prediction is an OPS of around .770.
Stephen Drew, SS
| System |
AB |
R |
H |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
| 2008 |
611 |
91 |
178 |
21 |
67 |
41 |
109 |
3 |
3 |
.291 |
.333 |
.502 |
.836 |
| 2009 |
533 |
71 |
139 |
12 |
65 |
49 |
87 |
5 |
1 |
.261 |
.320 |
.428 |
.748 |
| BJames |
585 |
80 |
161 |
17 |
71 |
52 |
92 |
5 |
3 |
.275 |
.335 |
.456 |
.791 |
| CHONE |
550 |
73 |
149 |
15 |
63 |
45 |
92 |
4 |
2 |
.271 |
.328 |
.431 |
.759 |
| Marcel |
505 |
68 |
136 |
14 |
59 |
47 |
90 |
6 |
2 |
.269 |
.330 |
.444 |
.774 |
| Zips |
554 |
73 |
147 |
16 |
77 |
50 |
95 |
3 |
1 |
.265 |
.324 |
.444 |
.768 |
| HQ |
594 |
87 |
166 |
18 |
69 |
52 |
104 |
6 |
2 |
.280 |
.338 |
.466 |
.805 |
| Fans |
611 |
82 |
171 |
17 |
79 |
54 |
102 |
6 |
2 |
.280 |
.336 |
.457 |
.793 |
After an excellent 2008 and a disappointing 2009, all of the projections have Drew finishing 2010 somewhere between the two. My guess is somewhere around .270/.330/.450 for Drew in 2010.
Mark Reynolds, 3B
| System |
AB |
R |
H |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
| 2008 |
539 |
87 |
129 |
28 |
97 |
64 |
204 |
11 |
2 |
.239 |
.320 |
.458 |
.779 |
| 2009 |
578 |
98 |
150 |
44 |
102 |
76 |
223 |
24 |
9 |
.260 |
.349 |
.543 |
.892 |
| BJames |
559 |
103 |
150 |
40 |
107 |
72 |
191 |
18 |
8 |
.268 |
.356 |
.551 |
.907 |
| CHONE |
492 |
83 |
128 |
30 |
87 |
60 |
169 |
11 |
5 |
.260 |
.345 |
.498 |
.843 |
| Marcel |
519 |
85 |
135 |
31 |
89 |
63 |
183 |
14 |
5 |
.260 |
.342 |
.503 |
.845 |
| Zips |
530 |
85 |
137 |
33 |
106 |
64 |
182 |
7 |
3 |
.258 |
.341 |
.509 |
.850 |
| HQ |
577 |
97 |
143 |
37 |
99 |
69 |
211 |
15 |
6 |
.248 |
.328 |
.502 |
.830 |
| Fans |
593 |
90 |
152 |
37 |
109 |
74 |
219 |
18 |
4 |
.256 |
.340 |
.502 |
.843 |
All of the projections have Reynolds hitting at least 30 HR in 2010, with a so-so batting average and a lot of strikeouts. The projected OPS is generally around .840, with Bill James up at .907.
Conor Jackson, LF
| System |
AB |
R |
H |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
| 2007 |
415 |
56 |
118 |
15 |
60 |
53 |
50 |
2 |
2 |
.284 |
.368 |
.467 |
.836 |
| 2008 |
540 |
87 |
162 |
12 |
75 |
59 |
61 |
10 |
2 |
.300 |
.376 |
.446 |
.823 |
| 2009 |
99 |
8 |
18 |
1 |
14 |
11 |
16 |
5 |
0 |
.182 |
.264 |
.253 |
.516 |
| Bjames |
463 |
66 |
132 |
12 |
69 |
57 |
54 |
9 |
4 |
.285 |
.368 |
.438 |
.806 |
| CHONE |
416 |
60 |
115 |
12 |
61 |
48 |
56 |
4 |
2 |
.276 |
.358 |
.425 |
.783 |
| Marcel |
278 |
39 |
77 |
8 |
39 |
32 |
39 |
5 |
1 |
.277 |
.356 |
.435 |
.791 |
| Zips |
356 |
50 |
99 |
10 |
59 |
40 |
46 |
4 |
1 |
.278 |
.357 |
.441 |
.798 |
| HQ |
517 |
65 |
144 |
15 |
75 |
61 |
68 |
11 |
1 |
.278 |
.354 |
.433 |
.788 |
| Fans |
494 |
79 |
144 |
13 |
84 |
55 |
65 |
6 |
1 |
.292 |
.369 |
.450 |
.819 |
Most of the projections are worried about Jackson's Valley-Fever plagued 2009 season. I think Jackson will be all the way back, and should have an OPS around .830.
Chris Young, CF
| System |
AB |
R |
H |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
| 2007 |
569 |
85 |
135 |
32 |
68 |
43 |
141 |
27 |
6 |
.237 |
.295 |
.467 |
.763 |
| 2008 |
625 |
85 |
155 |
22 |
85 |
62 |
165 |
14 |
5 |
.248 |
.315 |
.443 |
.758 |
| 2009 |
433 |
54 |
92 |
15 |
42 |
59 |
133 |
11 |
4 |
.212 |
.311 |
.400 |
.711 |
| Bjames |
560 |
84 |
137 |
25 |
73 |
65 |
142 |
17 |
6 |
.245 |
.326 |
.463 |
.789 |
| CHONE |
341 |
46 |
78 |
11 |
33 |
43 |
98 |
7 |
5 |
.229 |
.320 |
.387 |
.707 |
| Marcel |
461 |
63 |
110 |
19 |
56 |
50 |
123 |
14 |
4 |
.239 |
.315 |
.440 |
.756 |
| Zips |
563 |
77 |
133 |
23 |
83 |
62 |
143 |
9 |
3 |
.236 |
.315 |
.440 |
.755 |
| HQ |
518 |
73 |
123 |
21 |
61 |
60 |
140 |
14 |
6 |
.237 |
.316 |
.442 |
.758 |
| Fans |
504 |
65 |
122 |
21 |
72 |
60 |
140 |
18 |
5 |
.242 |
.323 |
.451 |
.775 |
The projections for Young are all over the map. CHONE has Young with another miserable year, finishing with an OPS around .707. Most others have Young returning to his 2007-2008 form, around .750, while the fans and Bill James have Young having the best season of his career. Young did finish strongly in September, so hopefully he can get the OPS in the .770 range.
Justin Upton, RF
| System |
AB |
R |
H |
HR |
RBI |
BB |
SO |
SB |
CS |
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
| 2008 |
356 |
52 |
89 |
15 |
42 |
54 |
121 |
1 |
4 |
.250 |
.353 |
.463 |
.816 |
| 2009 |
526 |
84 |
158 |
26 |
86 |
55 |
137 |
20 |
5 |
.300 |
.366 |
.532 |
.899 |
| BJames |
564 |
93 |
165 |
28 |
90 |
68 |
142 |
19 |
8 |
.293 |
.371 |
.534 |
.905 |
| CHONE |
456 |
73 |
135 |
22 |
72 |
52 |
115 |
13 |
7 |
.296 |
.372 |
.515 |
.887 |
| Marcel |
472 |
73 |
135 |
21 |
68 |
57 |
124 |
12 |
4 |
.286 |
.364 |
.506 |
.871 |
| Zips |
511 |
79 |
144 |
26 |
90 |
64 |
134 |
9 |
3 |
.282 |
.363 |
.521 |
.884 |
| HQ |
577 |
87 |
160 |
28 |
93 |
69 |
161 |
22 |
7 |
.277 |
.354 |
.504 |
.858 |
| Fans |
582 |
102 |
173 |
31 |
109 |
69 |
148 |
22 |
6 |
.297 |
.373 |
.541 |
.914 |
Another solid year for Upton, although only the Fans are projecting a significant increase.
Conclusions
The Diamondbacks' offense should be significantly improved in 2010. I think they will get above-average production from Montero, LaRoche, Drew, Reynolds, Upton, and Jackson, and hopefully at league average results from Johnson and CYoung. This team will strike out a lot, with four players (Reynolds, Upton, LaRoche, Young) certain to break 100 Ks, with Drew, Johnson, and Montero coming close to that level. Team speed will also be a concern, as most projections have Reynolds' SBs decreasing, and only Upton safely in double figures. Still, this team will have good power, and will draw their share of walks. I predict a team total of at least 770 runs scored, or 50 more than each of the last two seasons.
