In an unexpected move, veteran left-hander Joe Saunders re-signed with the Diamondbacks on a one year, $6M contract. The club had reportedly offered a 2 yr, $12M deal during the fall that was turned down by Saunders. Saunders had then countered with an offer of 3 years for $27M, and the team decided to non-tender him. But after looking at his options around the league, Saunders decided to come back to Arizona. Key factors included the fact that he had enjoyed his time with the Diamondbacks, and that he had recently purchased a home in Arizona.

The signing of Saunders basically completes the 2012 starting rotation, with Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Trevor Cahill, and Josh Collmenter filling the other four slots. In fact, the entire 25-Man roster is basically set at this point, with 26 players likely batting for 25 spots. Let's take a look at the likely roster and payroll for next year's team.

Starting Pitchers (5 players, $11M): Ian Kennedy ($0.5M), Daniel Hudson ($0.5M), Trevor Cahill ($3.5M), Joe Saunders ($6M), Josh Collmenter ($0.5M)
Relief Pitchers (7 players, $10.75M): J.J. Putz ($4.5M), David Hernandez ($0.5M), Takashi Saito ($1.75M), Bryan Shaw ($0.5M), Brad Ziegler ($1.5M), Craig Breslow ($1.5M), Joe Patterson ($0.5M)
Catchers (2 players, $7.2M): Miguel Montero ($6M), Henry Blanco ($1.2M)
Infielders (7 players, $18.7M): Paul Goldschmidt ($0.5M), Aaron Hill ($5.5M), Stephen Drew ($7.75M), Ryan Roberts ($1.1M), Lyle Overbay ($1M), John McDonald ($1.5M), Geoff Blum ($1.35M) 
Outfielders (5 players, $23.65M): Justin Upton ($6.75M), Chris Young ($7M), Gerardo Parra ($0.5M), Jason Kubel ($7.5M), Willie Bloomquist ($1.9M)
Total: 26 Players, $71.3M 

The numbers above include estimates for players like Montero, Ziegler, Breslow, and Roberts, who are all arbitration-eligible this year. But it seems clear that the opening day payroll will be at least $70M, a significant increase over the 2011 level of $56M, but similar to that in 2009 and 2010. It also means that prospects such as Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs, and Wade Miley will probably start the 2012 campaign in the Minor Leagues, which is good since they all have very little experience in the upper minors. If Stephen Drew is healthy for Opening Day (and there are no other injuries), then obviously someone will have to go (Geoff Blum?). Or the the team could choose to send Collmenter down to AAA for the first two weeks, until they need a 5th starter.

Follow DV on Twitter

Buy DV D'Backs Tickets

The first four slots in the Arizona Diamondbacks' 2012 Starting Rotation should be set, with right-handers Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Trevor Cahill, and Josh Collmenter. At one time, the Diamondbacks were considering players like Joe Saunders or Hiroki Kuroda for the rotation, but the recent signing of outfielder Jason Kubel probably means that the team won't be spending much more on the rotation. Here are some possible choices for the rotation.

Starters on the 40-Man Roster - Trevor Bauer, Barry Enright, Zach Kroenke,  Joe Martinez, Wade Miley
Spring Training Non-Roster Invitees - Charles Brewer, Patrick Corbin, Chris Jakubauskas, Tyler Skaggs
Available Free Agent Starters - Bartolo Colon, Kyle Davies, Doug Davis, Zach Duke, Jeff Francis, Armando Galarraga, Jon Garland, Rich Harden, Clay Hensley, Livan Hernandez, Edwin Jackson, Scott Kazmir, Hiroki Kuroda, Rodrigo Lopez, Paul Maholm, Kevin Millwood, Sergio Mitre, Ross Ohlendorf,  Roy Oswalt, Brad Penny, Joel Pineiro, Joe Saunders, Javier Vazquez, Brandon Webb, Chris Young

Let's take a closer look at these choices.

In a very surprising move, the Diamondbacks signed OF Jason Kubel to a 2 year, $15M deal with an option for 2014. There is no question that Kubel can hit, but where will he play on the field?

The Diamondbacks seemed set in the outfield, with Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Gerardo Parra returning. This was a very good group defensively, with Parra collecting 12 Outfield Assists and winning a Gold Glove in LF. Parra was a surprise offensively in 2011, posting career highs in AVG (.292), OBP (.357), and SLG (.427). Upton is coming off a .289/.369/.529 season with 31 HR, and will clearly be the starting RF. Chris Young was good defensively in CF, but only hit .236/.331/.420. Paul Goldschmidt was expected to be the starting 1B, coming off a .250/.333/.474 performance since his August call-up, with Lyle Overbay serving as the backup. Now, the Diamondbacks certainly have more options.

There are several possible scenarios that could happen:
1) Kubel becomes the everyday LF, with Gerardo Parra becoming the 4th OF;
2) Kubel starts in LF, with Parra in CF against RHP, with Parra/Young starting against LHP
3) Kubel starts in LF, and Parra takes over in CF, with Chris Young traded;
4) Kubel starts in LF against RHP, with Parra starting against LHP;
5) Kubel platoons with Paul Goldschmidt at 1B;
6) Kubel rotates between 1B and LF, depending on slumps and injuries;
7) Kubel becomes a very expensive pinch hitter and backup at 1B/LF.

The Diamondbacks made a big trade during the Winter Meetings, trading top prospect RHP Jarrod Parker, along with OF Collin Cowgill and RP Ryan Cook, to the Oakland A's for pitchers RHP Trevor Cahill and LHP Craig Breslow. The Diamondbacks are trading a player with a lot of upside in Parker for the more established Major Leaguer in Cahill. But is important to note that while Cahill has already pitched for three years in the Majors, with 96 Games Started and 40 Wins, he is only 8 months older than Parker, who spend most of 2011 in AA Mobile. Cahill is already signed to a reasonable contract through 2015, so the Diamondbacks will be able to keep him for several years. But the big question is - how good is Trevor Cahill, and is he likely to be better than Jarrod Parker during that time?

The Diamondbacks selected 24 year old RHP Brett Lorin with the 25th pick in the 2011 Rule 5 Draft, from the Pirates organization. Lorin is a big righthander (6-7, 245) who pitches on a downhill plane. Despite his size, he is not a very hard thrower, usually averaging around 90-91 mph on his fastball, and occasionally getting up to around 94.  Lorin has excellent command with his sinker/slider, gets a lot of ground balls, and does a great job of keeping the ball in the park (26 HR in 341 career minor league IP).  Lorin pitched for Bradenton in the Florida State League (High Class A) in 2011, primarily as a starter.

Brett Lorin (24) -  7-6, 2.84 ERA, 117.1 IP, 7.6K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9, 17 Games Started

Lorin is a Southern California native, pitching for Dana Hills HS and then attending Long Beach State. He was drafted in the 5th Round by the Mariners, and then was traded to the Pirates in mid-2009 as part of the Jack Wilson/Ian Snell for Ronny Cedeno/Jack Clement trade. His career was delayed by hip surgery in 2010, forcing him to restart his career back in Rookie Ball and Low Class A. He came back healthy in 2011, and showed excellent control, with a 5.21 K/BB ratio. Some scouts felt that he may have been too advanced for that league.

Lorin was slated for AA in 2012, so the Majors would be a big jump for him. If he sticks with the Diamondbacks, he would almost certainly be a reliever. But while his command and control are very good, there are questions about whether his stuff is good enough for the Majors. The team may be hoping that he will add a few mph to his fastball by pitching in relief. Long term, most scouts feel that he profiles as a 4th starter. GM Kevin Towers was quoted as saying "There's upside. The numbers were very impressive. We're excited to have him." At the same time, there are reports that the Pirates hope to get Lorin back, since it will be tough for him to make the Diamondbacks' roster.

Coming off an NL West title in 2011, the Diamondbacks are not expected to make many significant moves during this offseason. So far, the biggest moves have been the re-signings of 2B Aaron Hill and Shortstops Willie Bloomquist and John McDonald. Several reserves from the 2011 team were allowed to pursue free agency, including Pitchers Zach Duke and Jason Marquis. 

Signed
C Henry Blanco
2B Aaron Hill
SS John McDonald
SS Willie Bloomquist
IF Rusty Ryal (minor league deal)
SS Wladimir Sutil (minor league deal)
RP Jensen Lewis (minor league deal)
SP Chris Jakubauskas (minor league deal)

Released/Allowed to become Free Agents
1B Xavier Nady
1B Lyle Overbay
SP Jason Marquis
SP Zach Duke
RP Kam Mickolio

Rumors
Mark Buehrle, Hiroki Kuroda, Joe Saunders, Lyle Overbay, Miguel Montero, Ian Stewart

Let's take a look at the Diamondbacks' offseason so far, and the latest free agent rumors, as we head into the Winter Meetings on Monday.

Baseball America posted their list of the Diamondbacks' Top 10 Prospects on Monday, and as expected, the list was dominated by pitchers. The four highest ranked prospects were pitchers, as well as seven of the top ten. BA also hosted a chat session on Monday (subscriber only), and a few highlights are posted below. Here is their Top 10 list, along with the mid-season rankings from D'Backs Venom in parentheses. 

1. Trevor Bauer, RHP (1)
2. Archie Bradley, RHP (4)
3. Tyler Skaggs, LHP (3)
4. Jarrod Parker, RHP (2)
5. Matt Davidson, 3B/1B (5)
6. A.J. Pollock, PF (9)
7. David Holmberg, LHP (7)
8. Chris Owings, SS (10)
9. Wade Miley, LHP (12)
10. Patrick Corbin, LHP (6)

The two Top 10s only differ on one player, 3B/1B/LF Bobby Borchering, who BA said was their #11 prospect (Paul Goldschmidt was ranked #5 in my mid-season rankings, but I have removed him and moved everyone else up one spot, since he is no longer rookie-eligible) . Archie Bradley moved up to the #2 position based on a strong Instructional League showing, where scouts called him "spectacular" and "the real deal". Some notes on some other players in the chat:

Adam Eaton - ranked in the top 15; made biggest jump from the previous year
Anthony Meo - also top 15; will work as starter, but will probably be a reliever longterm
Kevin Munson - ranked in the 20-30 range; could be a solid late reliever 
Marc Krauss - stock dropped in 2011, but still a top 20 pick; needs to rebound in 2012
Keon Broxton - also in top 20; showed improvement, but still a long way to go
Wagner Mateo - not in top 30; had trouble picking up fly balls and with pitch recognition 

The National League MVP Award will be announced on Tuesday, November 22. The Diamondbacks' Justin Upton is expected to be among the leading vote getters, but the favorites to win should be Matt Kemp of the Dodgers and Ryan Braun of the Brewers. Here is how I would fill out my MVP ballot. (Here are links to previous articles on the NL Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards). 

1. Matt Kemp, CF, LAD - .324/.399/.586, 115 R, 39 HR, 126 RBI, 40 SB, 10.0 bWAR, 8.7 fWAR
Kemp led the NL in HR, RBI, Runs Scored, Total Bases, and OPS+ (171). He finished 2nd in Slugging Percentage, 3rd in Batting Average, 4th in On-Base Percentage, and 2nd in Stolen Bases.  His counting stats were easily the best in the NL, and his rate stats were about the same as Ryan Braun's. But Kemp passes Braun because he played in more games and because of park effects - Dodger Stadium was a slight pitcher's park, while Miller Park was a pretty good park for hitters. Kemp also was productive running the bases, and improved on his disastrous fielding numbers in 2010 to become average defensively in 2011. The Fans' Scouting Report gave Kemp a score of 67 this year, a solid improvement from the 59 in 2010. Kemp's UZR went from -25.7 to -4.6, and his Defensive Runs Saved went from -15 to +1.  On Tuesday, Kemp should join fellow NL K Winners Kershaw, Kimbrel, and Kirk (Gibson).

The 2011 National League Cy Young Award winner will be announced on Thursday, August 17th. The Diamondbacks' Ian Kennedy, who finished 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, is expected to finish among the Top 5 in the voting. The winner should be be either the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw, who led the NL in ERA, Strikeouts, and Wins, or Roy Halladay of the Phillies, who led the league in all of the various Wins Above Replacement stats. Here is how I would rank the contenders this year, along with their basic stats and the WAR totals from Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.

1. Clayton Kershaw, LAD - 21-5, 233.1 IP, 2.28 ERA, 2.47 FIP, 6.8 bWAR, 7.0 fWAR
Kershaw was the first NL pitcher to lead the NL in Wins, ERA, and Strikeouts since 2007 Cy Young winner Jake Peavy. Kershaw also led the NL in WHIP (0.977) and in fewest hits per 9 IP with 6.7. Kershaw was even better in the 2nd Half, going 12-1 with a 1.31 ERA after the break.

Even though the Dodgers were out of the race, Kershaw was pitching great games against pennant contenders down the stretch, facing the Diamondbacks. Giants, Braves, Brewers, and Cardinals over his final seven starts. Over his last 15 starts, Kershaw allowed more than 2 ER just once. Meanwhile, even though Halladay was pitching for a playoff team, the Phillies were 13 Games Ahead, and Halladay only faced three playoff contenders (D-Backs, Brewers, Cards) over his final 13 starts. So Kershaw was the one pitching better and the one in more meaningful games in the second half. There is so little difference between the two, but these small factors are enough for me to give Kershaw the nod.

One key to the Diamondbacks' amazing 2011 season was the pitching of rookie Josh Collmenter, who came out of nowhere to post a 3.38 ERA with 10 Wins over 24 starts. For the National League as a whole, it wasn't a great year for rookies. The best rookie starting pitchers, for example, did not pitch in the Majors for the full season. Only six rookie position players managed to get over 350 Plate Appearances. None of the best rookie position players were both full-time players and particularly good offensively. The only rookie who played like an All-Star all season was the Braves' Craig Kimbrel, who I have ranked at #1. Here are my Top 10 NL Rookie of the Year rankings for 2011. The official MLB Rookie of the Year results will be announced on Monday, November 14th at 2:00 ET.

1. Craig Kimbrel, RP, ATL - 4-3, 46 Saves, 77 IP, 2.10 ERA, 1.52 FIP, 3.0 bWAR, 3.2 fWAR
Kimbrel had an amazing year as the Braves' closer, finishing with 127 strikeouts in 77 innings, for a rate of 14.8 K/9. That gives Kimbrel the 4th highest K/9 season in history among pitchers with at least 75 IP, and his career rate of 15.4 K/9 (167K in 97.2 IP) is currently the highest of any pitcher in history. Kimbrel led the NL with 46 Saves and in Games Finished with 64. He did slow down a little down the stretch, as did the rest of the Braves, by allowing runs in three of his last four outings, but his overall season was very impressive.
no comments